After the magical 2021, what will be the foreign trade situation in 2022?
(1) The gap between supply and demand will still exist in 2022, which will continue to drive my country's export boom, which in turn will drive the high growth of midstream-related industrial manufacturing. Judging from the clues of time development since the epidemic, the gap between overseas supply and demand has brought about strong growth in anti-epidemic, online office equipment, post-real estate consumption, electronics, general equipment, cultural, educational and sporting goods, etc., driving the internal structure of my country's high export growth. Continuous evolution.
(2) How long the "price rise and volume fall" will continue depends on when the supply shortage eases, especially in the chip industry. Most downstream chip manufacturers in the United States judge that the "lack of cores" will ease in the second half of 2022. Therefore, we believe that the trend of "price increase and volume decrease" for exports may continue into the first half of 2022.
(3) When will the U.S. port congestion be eased? The U.S. government has taken a number of measures to speed up the flow of port cargo, but even so, according to the judgment of many U.S. port executives (such as the executive director of the Port of Long Beach, California), U.S. port congestion will continue at least. Mid-2022. This means that China's exports are still expected to benefit from the "long whip effect" formed by the congestion of US ports and the replenishment of warehouses by enterprises.
(4) Driven by the two important events of the Winter Olympics and the "Twenty National Congress", China's foreign trade in 2022 will not only perform well, but also have a window period of one to one and a half years.
(5) RCEP brings major benefits. The huge East Asia + Southeast Asia + Australia and New Zealand markets will break the tariff barriers, and about 90% of the goods will implement zero tariffs. In 2021, my country's total import and export volume with ASEAN will reach 4.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, accounting for 14.4% of the total foreign trade value, making it my country's largest trading partner.
Overall, it is expected that 2022 will be the first year for China's economy to return to a relatively normal development track after the epidemic. The economy will continue to face certain downward pressure. It is expected that my country's total import and export value in the first quarter will likely maintain a double-digit growth rate. In the follow-up, if the global epidemic is under control and the economy recovers, the export growth rate may slow down marginally, but the overall growth is still resilient. What are the characteristics of overseas markets in 2022?
(1) Southeast Asia is or will become the main battlefield for foreign trade people
(2) The competition in the low-end industry is fierce, and it is recommended that foreign trade people transform to high-end products
(3) The demand for medical, daily necessities and electronic products in Europe and the United States has surged
(4) Home electronic products and basic physiological needs products have a good growth trend during the epidemic
(5) Combined with product promotion, choose products that are easy to promote
